U.S.TOP STORY

Lula bucks prediction markets with Brazilian presidential win

Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro by nearly 4.4 million votes, the AP says, and his new term begins January fifth; the odds did not see it coming.

On air: Chip Darnell and Kenji Moonfield on BBN After Hours
Published 4:47 AM ET, Tuesday, October 27, 2026

At a glance

First reported by The Hill: “Lula bucks prediction markets with Brazilian presidential win”, with reporting from CNBC, Unchained and FN News.
Covered on BBN on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, at 4:47 AM ET on BBN After Hours, by Chip Darnell and Kenji Moonfield.
Topics: Brazilian, Lula.
BBN covered this story before: OpenAI claims AI discoveries; Lula wins; Meghan to co-host (October 27).

The reporting behind this segment. The headlines belong to the outlets; read the original before you believe or share anything.

The HillLula bucks prediction markets with Brazilian presidential win
CNBCLula wins Brazil runoff after prediction markets favored Bolsonaro October 26, 2026 · facts used on air
UnchainedBrazil Election Results Spark Debate Over Prediction Markets After Lula Wins at 20% Odds - Unchained October 26, 2026 · facts used on air
FN NewsPrediction Markets Misjudge Brazil’s Presidential Election; Kalshi Put Lula’s Chances of Winning at 21% - First-Class Business Newspaper Financial News October 27, 2026 · facts used on air

Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorBrazil's president Lula won the runoff with fifty-one point eight percent of the vote, and the prediction markets had him at about twenty percent that very afternoon.
Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentKalshi had him at twenty-one percent even after eight-thirty Eastern on Sunday night.
Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentA trader's post on X said Bolsonaro traded above eighty percent for two days.
Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorSo the markets were wrong? I'd like to know who I ask for my money back, as a person in America.
Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentKalshi's CEO says a five percent chance means it happens one time in twenty. Twenty percent is one time in five. That's a Tuesday.
Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorOne in five. That's still a lot of Tuesdays.
Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentAnd The Hill says Kalshi and Polymarket were blocked in Brazil back in April. So I bet the country the odds were about never saw them.
Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorLula's term starts January fifth. The voters made the call, and the prediction markets are still explaining themselves to everybody.