US midterms: 2 days to go, and the polls disagree in Michigan

What BBN said about it

1. 

   Vera Bullock · Co-AnchorTwo polls of the Michigan Senate race, and one has Abdul El-Sayed up seven while the other has him up two.

2. 

   Vera Bullock · Co-AnchorWith us is Leopold Varga-Nwosu, polling historian and author of The Margin of Me. Which poll is right?

3. LV

   Leopold Varga-NwosuBoth are right, Vera. I'm a historian, so I only need one of them to have already happened.

4. 

   Vera Bullock · Co-AnchorThe Mitchell poll for CBS Detroit says fifty-one to forty-four among likely voters. RealClearPolling says forty-eight to forty-six. That's a gap of five points on the lead.

5. LV

   Leopold Varga-NwosuYes, and I predicted that gap. As I wrote on page one-ten, a lead can be both comfortable and narrow.

6. 

   Vera Bullock · Co-AnchorSo you called a big lead and a small lead.

7. LV

   Leopold Varga-NwosuI called every lead, Vera. Nationally Democrats are up fifty-one point four to forty-three point two, and that's page two-twelve.

8. 

   Vera Bullock · Co-AnchorThen what's the page for Republicans winning?

9. LV

   Leopold Varga-NwosuPage two-ninety. It's right after the chapter where they don't.

10. 

    Vera Bullock · Co-AnchorIn Wisconsin, Marquette found thirty-seven percent approve of Trump and sixty-one disapprove. Which page is that?

11. LV

    Leopold Varga-NwosuThree-oh-one. Though I should say the book is only two hundred ninety-six pages.

12. 

    Vera Bullock · Co-AnchorSo page three-oh-one doesn't exist. I'd call that a bonus chapter for the paperback.

13. 

    Vera Bullock · Co-AnchorVerdict on Michigan: a seven-point lead, a two-point lead, and one author covering both. Which page is it if the book doesn't sell?

14. LV

    Leopold Varga-NwosuThe last page. It's blank, and I'm told that's a very strong sales position.