Early voting shows Hispanic turnout surging in Texas

What BBN said about it

1. 

   Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorNearly one point eight million Hispanic voters have already cast ballots in Texas, with three days to go until Election Day.

2. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorThat sounds big. How big compared to the last midterm?

3. 

   Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorNBC News says it's more than eight hundred eighty-one thousand more voters than at this point in twenty twenty-two.

4. 

   Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorThat's an eighty-seven point two percent jump.

5. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorEighty-seven percent?

6. 

   Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorEighty-seven. The headline uses the word sea change, so that's their word, not mine.

7. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorIs everybody in Texas voting early this year, or just them?

8. 

   Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorEverybody is, more or less.

9. 

   Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorThe Texas Tribune says a record seven point four million Texans voted early, and turnout is about thirty-nine percent, just short of the twenty eighteen midterm record.

10. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorSo how much of that is Hispanic voters, as a share?

11. 

    Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorEighteen percent of early voters as of the Tribune's last count, a point above twenty twenty-four and two above twenty twenty-two.

12. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorThat's a smaller bump than eighty-seven percent. Why the gap?

13. 

    Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorBecause more people overall are voting, so the share moves less than the raw count. Both numbers are true.

14. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorWho does it help?

15. 

    Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorNobody can say for sure. Texas voters don't register by party, so the partisan makeup of early voters is hard to read.

16. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorSo somebody's guessing.

17. 

    Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorTexas Monthly calls early voting analysis well-informed guesses based on past voting history. Those patterns can only tell you so much.

18. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorWhat are the people who study this saying?

19. 

    Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorElection researcher Michael McDonald called the Hispanic numbers eye-popping and said turnout is strong along the border.

20. 

    Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorDemocratic strategist Matt Angle said the last-minute surge likely means more Hispanics and Black people are voting.

21. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorIs there a theory for why turnout is up?

22. 

    Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorMcDonald has floated that it could be a referendum on Trump, to explain stronger early turnout among Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

23. 

    Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorIt is a theory, and Republicans may read it differently.

24. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorSo everyone gets to claim the surge as a win, and nobody has to show their work.

25. 

    Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorUntil Tuesday. The ballots get counted, and that's what settles it. Today it's one point eight million people showing up.

26. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorSo, one sentence: a lot of people voted early and nobody knows for whom.

27. 

    Hank Ledger · Lead AnchorEverybody in Texas has an opinion about the early vote. Fortunately the early vote didn't ask for one.