Mike Rogers claims 7 percent lead on early ballots 'by our models'

What BBN said about it

1. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorA Michigan Senate candidate says he's ahead by almost seven percent on early ballots, and the number comes from his own models.

2. 

   Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentOkay, so who counted?

3. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorNobody, officially. Republican Mike Rogers said it on Fox News, and The Hill reports he gave no further evidence for it.

4. 

   Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentWhat did he actually say? Word for word.

5. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorQuote: "We're actually about seven percent ahead on voters that we believe are voting for us returning their ballots."

6. 

   Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentVoters they believe are voting for them. That's the whole claim.

7. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorHere's how we got here. Rogers is a former congressman running for the seat Democratic Senator Gary Peters is leaving.

8. 

   Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentAnd why can't anyone just look up which party is returning ballots?

9. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorBecause Michigan voters don't register by party. Yahoo News notes partisan breakdowns of early ballots rely on modeling, not official data.

10. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentSo it's a lead on a list nobody published.

11. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorHe's made a version of this before. On Newsmax he said his modeling showed Republicans returning ballots at a better rate than Democrats.

12. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentSame model, new studio.

13. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorWho does this touch? Every Michigan voter who's watching the race, and anybody who reads a number like that and wonders if it's real.

14. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentIs anybody else saying it's close?

15. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorDecision Desk HQ gives his Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, a seventy-four percent chance of winning. The Hill reports recent polls lean his way too.

16. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentSo two models disagree, and only one of them is on Fox.

17. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorFair to say the Rogers side sees an early edge, and the polls and forecasters see something else.

18. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorBoth of those are claims about the future.

19. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentHe also said a massive number of Jewish Democrats are organizing for his side.

20. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorThat's from Yahoo News, and no numbers came with it either. So what do you watch next? The actual vote count.

21. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentThe only model that counts is the one with ballots in it.

22. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorOne sentence version: a candidate says he's ahead, and the proof is that he believes it.

23. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentSo he's ahead by seven percent among the people he's sure about.

24. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorThat's a fan club with a ballot box.