Carville: Republicans could lose House, Senate despite money edge

What BBN said about it

1. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorHere's the one-sentence version: a loud Democratic strategist says Republicans are likely to lose the House next month, even with more money.

2. 

   Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentOkay, so who is saying it, and why should someone who just woke up care?

3. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorJames Carville, a longtime Democratic strategist. He said it Thursday on NewsNation's CUOMO, and he called a Republican loss in the House highly likely.

4. 

   Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentHighly likely. That's a pretty confident phrase for a guy who isn't on the ballot.

5. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorThe Hill reports he doubled down on an earlier analysis, with the midterm elections just over two weeks away.

6. 

   Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentSo this isn't a new claim.

7. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorRight, it's a repeat. What makes it a story is the setup: Republicans have a significant financial advantage and several successful redistricting measures.

8. 

   Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentRedistricting, in plain words?

9. 

   Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorRedrawing the district maps. Think of moving the walls inside a mall so your store sits where the foot traffic already is.

10. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentAnd money is the ad budget for the grand opening. Lots of banners, lots of texts.

11. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorExactly. Carville's argument is that the banners and the floor plan still don't guarantee anyone walks through the door.

12. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentWho does this affect, besides people whose phones are about to fill with fundraising texts?

13. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorAnyone who lives under whichever party controls the House.

14. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorThat chamber writes spending bills, so it shapes what Congress can pass for the next two years.

15. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentFair. What does the other side say?

16. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorOur data doesn't carry a Republican response, so we can't put words in anyone's mouth.

17. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorRepublicans could simply point to that money and those maps as their strength.

18. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentAnd a strategist forecasting for his own team is, let's say, not a neutral umpire.

19. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorThat's fair for any party. Every side's strategists predict a good night for their own side, and the voters decide who was right.

20. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentSo the real forecast is who bothers to vote.

21. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorPretty much. Watch the polls, the early voting numbers, and whether Carville's headline sounds smart or silly in about two weeks.

22. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentIn a few minutes, we'll find out why a certain rapper never takes his sunglasses off.

23. 

    Chip Darnell · U.S. News AnchorSo, the one-sentence version again: a strategist says money and maps may not save Republicans, and the voters have the final say.

24. 

    Kenji Moonfield · Internet & Trends CorrespondentAnd the one thing both parties are certain about is that the fundraising texts will keep coming.